Investing involves the risk that your capital goes down as well as up; you may get back less than you invested. The commentary below is not intended as a recommendation for you to personally buy or sell any of the investments mentioned nor to take any investment action whatsoever. 

What happened

The second half of 2025 was a lot tamer than the first half. By the end of the first half, the market was already pricing in that President Trump’s tariff bark was tougher than its bite. The rest of the year was notable mainly for the market’s steady, if unexciting, move higher. 

Ultimately, inflation proved to be relatively stable in 2025, albeit at a higher level than the previous decade conditioned us to expect. Meanwhile, a moderate economic slowdown was largely shrugged off by markets. Part of the reason for this optimism is likely that interest rates came down, which makes it – all else equal – a little easier for people and businesses to borrow (and spend) money.  

Most importantly, perhaps, is that companies keep making more money: profit growth was 10% for the global stock market in 2025 and about the same is expected in 2026. There are always things to worry about but so long as company’s profits are growing at that sort of rate then investors in the stock market should do well. 

How it affected TindleWealth portfolios

The equity components of TindleWealth’s portfolios did well both in absolute and relative terms. Apart from our exposure to UK domestic equities in some strategies (which we reduced in July but remain overweight), all of the actively managed equity funds in which we invest outperformed the global stock market in 2025. Consequently, our clients who are benchmarked against a global equity portfolio had a good year. 

A negative from a relative perspective, for our UK orientated clients, is that our performance is judged against a benchmark that has a relatively high weighting to the FTSE 100. We own virtually none of the FTSE 100. This is a longstanding position that has served us very well over the years but was a relative headwind in 2025. 

Looking Forward

Our general strategy has been to own ‘real companies’: those that are profitable, have a low level of debt and trade at attractive valuations. This hasn’t always worked in an era where speculative companies have often outperformed, but it served our clients well in 2025 and I expect it will continue to do so in future years. 

This world is different than the pre-Covid world. Interest rates are above zero which means money isn’t free and it should therefore be harder for speculative companies to be ‘successful’. Fundamentals – whether they are company-specific or macro – should matter more. For example, emerging market equities should continue to outperform as the inherently higher growth potential of their economies are realised. It will be companies and economies that can successfully navigate higher interest rates and structurally higher inflation that are the winners of the next 5-10 years, and our clients’ portfolios are positioned accordingly.  

There are undoubtedly risks on the horizon including a possible collapse of the ‘AI boom’ and the historically high valuation of equity markets. One way this could manifest itself in 2026 is if the government bond market sells off sharply, as it could due a renewed increase in inflation and/or ever-increasing government borrowing and/or some other factor (for the detail orientated: central bank selling of longer dated bonds vs short dated bonds could be another catalyst). Such a scenario would probably be similar to 2022, which continues to be our client’s best year for relative performance (i.e. our clients lost significantly less money than most investors). So, while this isn’t our ‘base case’, it is the downside risk that I think is most likely. 

Nevertheless, I am positive for 2026. A combination of lower interest rates (as set by central banks) and a better fiscal environment in the US (mid term elections are coming up) will, I believe, continue to support relatively strong profit growth for the global stock market. At some point we’ll get another serious selloff, of course, but my sense is that will be a 2027 problem. Looking further ahead, owning equities remains one of the best long term hedges to inflation and therefore an excellent way to protect one’s wealth over the course of years and decades.